Downpours sprung up across Virginia Monday ahead of Tropical Storm Isaias, setting the stage for flood concerns when its steadiest rain arrives late overnight and Tuesday morning.
A several-hour burst of strong gusts throughout the morning could also topple trees and lead to outages, especially east of Interstate 95.
The most hazardous road conditions could coincide with Tuesday morning’s commute.
The National Weather Service released a Hurricane Local Statement for the Charlottesville region Monday afternoon.
While the area is not under a Tropical Storm Warning, significant flash flooding of streams and creeks is likely through Tuesday evening. Rivers and tributaries could also overflow in spots.
The region is also under a Flash Flood Watch from 5 p.m. Monday through Tuesday evening.
Metro Richmond and Tidewater are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. It’s the first tropical storm warning that includes Richmond since the western half of Hurricane Irene hit the area in 2011, according to the National Weather Service in Wakefield.
Latest position, track
Currently a tropical storm east of Georgia, Isaias could barely regain hurricane strength before making landfall tonight somewhere between Myrtle Beach, S.C. and Wilmington, N.C.
At 2 p.m. Monday, the storm was centered 180 miles south-southwest of Myrtle Beach, according to the National Hurricane Center. It had peak sustained winds of 70 mph, while tropical storm-force winds spread out 125 miles from the center. Isaias was moving north at 13 mph, and will keep picking up forward speed over the next 24 hours.
Hurricane Warnings extend from South Santee River, S.C. to Surf City, N.C. Tropical Storm Warnings are now in place from Surf City, N.C. to Massachusetts, including the Chesapeake Bay, Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound.
High winds
The tropical storm-force gusts across central and eastern Virginia will likely occur between 4 a.m. and 2 p.m. Tuesday. Be ready for the possibility of power outages, and secure loose objects outdoors.
Isolated tornadoes that spin up with short notice are also more of a concern east of Interstate 95.
Rain and flooding
Isaias’ soaking rain will spread farther across Virginia than the wind.
The heaviest rain is likely to fall along and west of the storm’s path. With the center still likely to pass over Tidewater or the peninsulas, that puts the rainfall bull’s-eye atop central Virginia.
Flash flood watches are posted for most parts of the state between Interstate 81 and the Chesapeake Bay from late Monday until late Tuesday.
Scattered downpours will continue across Virginia this afternoon and evening, but the storm’s steadiest rain and strong winds will arrive early Tuesday morning.
Totals look to exceed 3 inches in widespread fashion across metro Richmond, with a high-end potential for up to 8 inches somewhere within a 50 mile radius.
Creeks and low-lying roads across our region could quickly become inundated. If you live in or near a low-lying area or flood-prone creek, be ready to seek higher ground. Avoid driving through a flooded road.
The steady rain will quickly sweep out by early Tuesday afternoon as Isaias races up the Eastern Seaboard, but runoff could cause minor river flooding through midweek.
Here are the most likely ranges of rain and wind across central and eastern Virginia.
Look for more updates later today.
Charlottesville, Louisa and Farmville
Heaviest rain: 6 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Range of amounts: 2 to 4 inches, potentially up to 6 inches.
Potential winds: 25 to 35 mph.
Metro Richmond and the Tri-Cities
Heaviest rain: 4 a.m. to noon.
Range of amounts: 3 to 6 inches, up to 8 inches in spots.
Potential winds: 35 to 55 mph.
Williamsburg, Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck
Heaviest rain: 5 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Range of amounts: 2 to 6 inches, up to 8 inches in spots.
Potential winds: 50 to 70 mph, highest near water.
Up to 2 feet of storm surge in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly along the Potomac River.
Tornadoes possible.
Lynchburg and Danville
Heaviest rain: 4 a.m. to noon.
Range of amounts: 1 to 2 inches, potentially up to 4 inches.
Potential winds: 20 to 30 mph.
Source: www.dailyprogress.com
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